“As an informed exporter, it is important to know the major economic indicators of the countries where you are exporting. This is important to foresee if there are any possible chances of payment defaults. If there is, changes can be made in the payment terms. Hence, in order to aid this decision making process, we present the findings provided by the Euler Hermes in weekly frequency. Major indicators like GDP, sectoral development changes, major economic policies decision, sentiments after any new political appointment, bank rate changes etc. help in painting the economic condition of the country for the whole week.”

China:

Real economic growth moderated to +6.5% y/y in Q3 from +6.7% in Q2 due to a slowdown in the industrial sector. The services sector remained robust with growth of +7.9%. Monthly activity indicators also pointed to modest growth in industrial production as well as in investment. Following the GDP release, authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to support growth in order to ease financial market fears with additional measures to support the private sector. Looking ahead, there are full-year growth forecasts in 2019. While it is expected domestic demand to provide some resilience as accommodating fiscal and monetary policies have begun to have an impact, net trade will likely be less supportive to growth following the implementation of protectionist measures in the U.S.

Eurozone:

The ECB Bank Lending Survey reported a higher-than-expected easing in credit standards for both Eurozone SMEs and large corporates in Q3, excluding France where credit standards remained unchanged as banks are less optimistic on the economic environment. Banks’ cost of funds and balance sheet constraints had a neutral effect in all major countries, but banks expect worse market financing conditions in the next six months as the ECB prepares to gradually tighten its monetary policy. Overall, Eurozone banks expect a further easing in credit conditions in the next three months, albeit to a lower extent. The rise in net demand for loans to corporates continued to rise in Q3, but less than expected. Banks expect a further increase in net loan demand from corporates in Q4.

Turkey:

In October, the Consumer Confidence Index fell further to 57.3 points, its lowest level since December 2008. The latest figure does not bode well for consumer spending and retail sales in Q4. As Turkey’s currency crisis became full-fledged in August, calendar-adjusted real retail sales growth already fell in Q2 and in Q1. Looking at important industrial sub-sectors, output in August contracted in clothing, pharmaceuticals, fabricated metal products, machinery & equipment and automotive. It still increased in food, textiles, chemicals, electronics and electrical. Two to three quarters of negative real GDP growth are expected until mid-2019.

Angola:

In Angola, the recession is worsening. Real GDP shrank by -7.4% y/y in Q2. The economy is constrained by a widespread credit crunch since the government delayed payments in order to limit its own liquidity risk. The difficulties of banks are intertwined with the problems of the government and SOEs . Foreign currency liquidity has also weakened, as (i) the import cover of foreign reserves fell to a new low of 4 months in September and (ii) the short-term debt due to reserves ratio increased to 70%. Financing is still trapped in a blind run, using bilateral financing of long-term infrastructure gaps in order to fund short-run liquidity needs instead of more appropriate financing.

Poland:

Seasonally and calendar-adjusted industrial production contracted in September, the first m/m decline since April 2013. Similarly, seasonally and calendar-adjusted real retail sales decreased in September, taking the y/y growth rate down to +4.9% in September. Meanwhile, recently released business tendency indicators for October point to a weakening business climate in manufacturing, construction and wholesale trade while an improvement was registered in retail trade. Overall, these high frequency indicators suggest that the economic momentum is moderating but remains robust for now.

Ghana:

In Ghana, real GDP growth stabilized in Q2, fueled by a steady expansion in the manufacturing sector. Moreover, recent foreign direct investment trends have shown an increasing attractiveness, with perhaps the highest net inflows in Ghana’s history in 2018, despite an overall decline of FDI in Africa . As a result, Ghana’s current account deficit is fully covered by long-term financing. The commodity sector is the main driver, but the willingness to organize a tech & digital regional hub in Ghana is also driving growing inflows into the country, with a good chance to build a regional trade hub. Ghana should post the third largest export gains in the continent after the implementation of the continental free trade area

Singapore:

Based on advanced estimates, real GDP growth decelerated in Q3 from  Q2, driven by a continued contraction in construction and a slowdown in services. Non-oil domestic exports rose by +8.3% y/y in September (up from +5% in August). Demand was mainly driven by the U.S. and the EU and sectors that benefited from rising overseas sales such as pharmaceuticals and chemicals. Looking ahead, it is expected a full-year GDP growth to decelerate to +2.9% in 2018 and +2.6% in 2019 (from +3.6% in 2017) on the back of slower export growth. PMIs already signal slower expansion in new export orders and heightened tensions between China and the U.S. suggest further downward pressures going forward.